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Economy

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An Investors' Guide To The 2023 Dutch Snap Election
Special Report

The Netherlands has a healthier and more stable economy and demography than its European peers. Investors should stay overweight developed European equities, including Dutch equities, relative to emerging European equities.

Geopolitical Strategy by Max Malakhveitchouk, Matt Gertken
US Policy Is Restrictive, But Inflation Expectations Are Still High
The preliminary release for the University of Michigan’s Consumer Survey sent a pessimistic signal about consumer sentiment on Friday. The headline index fell from 63.8 to 60.4 in November, below expectations of a marginal decrease to 63.7. Declines in both…
Daily Insights
Weak UK Economy Raises Likelihood BoE Leads Pivot To Easing
The UK economy stagnated in Q3 – a deterioration from the minor 0.2% q/q expansion in the prior quarter. Although the Q3 figure is slightly better than anticipations of a 0.1% q/q contraction, the details of the report are generally weak. Consumption dropped…
Daily Insights
A Return To Positive Earnings Growth In Q3
The Q3 earnings season is nearing its end. By Friday, 92% of S&P 500 companies had already reported and thus far the results are positive. According to FactSet, the S&P 500's 4.1% y/y blended earnings growth rate is the first earnings expansion since…
Daily Insights
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Month-In-Review: If A Recession Is Averted For Now, Then Short The Dollar

In this report, we go around the globe and survey the near-term outlook for G10 currencies. Our longer-term view on the dollar has been clear, we are sellers. In this report, we review if a tactical sell is also warranted given incoming data and the message from our models.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
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Philippines: Can A Rate Hike Stem The Peso Slide?

The recent rate hike by the Philippines central bank cannot control food inflation. Nor can it stem the currency slide.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
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Biden Not A Lame Duck (Yet)

Results from Tuesday’s elections suggest that the Democrats are doing better than what their 2024 polling are showing. While the results are marginally positive for equities, investors should not overrate this off-year election, especially considering the slowing economy and the many foreign challenges facing the US.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken, Jesse Anak Kuri
Deflationary Pressures Still Dominate China's Economy
China's CPI and PPI inflation release for October indicates that deflationary pressures continue to dominate the domestic economy. After remaining unchanged in September, consumer prices declined by 0.2% y/y last month, falling below consensus estimates of a…
Daily Insights
Job Switchers Are Leading The Deceleration In Wage Growth
After surging in H2 2021/H1 2022, the Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker has been on a general downtrend for over a year. The latest reading of 5.2% in October – albeit unchanged from September – is considerably below the peak of 6.7% just over a year ago.…
Daily Insights
Natgas Demand: Higher For Longer
In the short run – i.e., over the current Northern Hemisphere winter – natural gas storage levels will be sufficient to balance heating and industrial demand with flowing supplies, assuming a normal winter in the EU and US, according to our colleagues at BCA…
Daily Insights

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