Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Economy

f_image_20231117_172113.PNG
The Soft-Landing Narrative Gathers Steam

The soft-landing narrative has gotten nowhere at BCA but appears to be making some headway with broker-dealers and investors. We are preparing to lean against it once it pushes equity prices a little higher.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
Singapore's NODX: The Rebound Continues?
Singapore is a small open economy that is highly sensitive to fluctuations in the global manufacturing activity. As such, Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) are a bellwether for global growth. Singapore’s NODX delivered an upside surprise on…
Daily Insights
Will US Homebuilder Stocks Continue Outperforming?
Recent data releases have painted a mixed picture of US housing market dynamics. On the one hand, housing starts and building permits unexpectedly increased on a month-on-month basis in October. After falling in 2022, housing starts have somewhat…
Daily Insights
A Lasting Improvement In Global Sentiment?
Global market sentiment has improved notably since late-October. In the equity space, DM and EM stocks have gained 8.5% and 7.8% respectively since October 26. Regarding currencies, the counter-cyclical DXY index has lost 2.2% so far in November. And as we…
Daily Insights
The Riddle Of Falling Oil Prices
Oil prices have relapsed despite the supply cuts and the geopolitical volatility stemming from the Middle East. Odds are that global oil demand is downshifting. The chart above illustrates that there is a tight relationship between crude oil prices and the…
Daily Insights
Maintain A Neutral Allocation To TIPS For Now
BCA Research's US Bond Strategy service continues to recommend a neutral allocation to TIPS for now, but with a bias to turn underweight. The team calculates a forecasted range for headline CPI inflation of 0.9% to 2.9% over the next 12 months. For core…
Daily Insights
f_image_20231117_145807.PNG
Watch Taiwan, Not US-China, For Détente

Investors should not get their hopes up about the Biden-Xi summit. Wait to see if a new ruling party is elected in Taiwan before downgrading geopolitical risk in the Taiwan Strait. US-China strategic détente is possible but neither the geopolitics nor the macro backdrop warrant a risk-on position next year.

Geopolitical Strategy, Global Investment Strategy by Matt Gertken
US Continuing Claims Climb To Nearly 2-Year High
US jobless claims have been trending higher in recent weeks, confirming that labor market conditions are deteriorating. Initial claims came in slightly above consensus estimates on Thursday, increasing by 231 thousand versus expectations of a 220 thousand…
Daily Insights
Growing Number Of Chinese Cities Experience Falling New Home Prices
The latest house price data indicate that China's housing market remains weak. The prices of newly built homes across 70 medium and large Chinese cities declined by 0.4% m/m in October – a faster pace of decline than the 0.3% m/m drop registered in September…
Daily Insights
F_IMAGE_20231115_175312.PNG
Taking The Pulse Of China’s Capital Flows

China’s capital outflows will likely remain substantial at least through the next few quarters. This wave of capital outflows will likely be more chronic, albeit less acute than the 2015-16 episode. Persistent capital outflows will exert downward pressure on the RMB.

China Investment Strategy by Qingyun Xu

Related Topics

AI BCA Indicators/Model BDCs Bubbles/Crises/Manias Commodities Commodities & Energy Sector Country In-Focus Currencies Defaults Deleveraging See more Topics