Economy
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, the odds of a “Minsky Moment” are low for the Chinese banking sector. Chinese banks, however, will continue facing cyclical and structural headwinds, including a dismal asset quality and profit…
Monday’s release of the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing index corroborates the signal from other regional Fed surveys that manufacturing conditions are picking up in the US. The headline Current General Business Activity index jumped from -27.4 to -11.3 in…
The FTSE 250 has been outperforming the FTSE 100 since late October 2023, with the former gaining 13.7% versus 3.9% in the case of the latter over this period. To the extent that UK small cap stocks are more exposed to domestic economic dynamics than their…
At the headline level, US equity indices are on a tear with the S&P 500 forging a fresh all-time high last week and the NASDAQ on the verge of overtaking its November 2021 record close. However, the rally remains quite narrow, led by only a few stocks. As we…
The 2023Q4 earnings season is drawing to a close with over 80% of S&P500 companies having reported results. However, the three main providers of aggregate earnings data are posting significant variations. Indeed, IBES Refinitiv reports a robust 9% y/y…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, Germany will likely drag the overall Euro Area into contraction, even if, individually, other countries manage to avoid a recession. This slightly better economic outcome will nonetheless…
The first in a series of Strategy Insights where we present a checklist for extending duration in each major government bond market. This first entry focuses on the US.
Outside of Germany, European growth fares better than many believe. Will this hidden resilience help the euro and push German yields higher?
Germany’s IFO Business Climate index ticked up 0.3 points to 85.5 in February, in line with consensus estimates. Expectations for the next 6 months explain the improvement in sentiment among German companies (up 0.6 points to 84.1), while their assessment of…
The messaging from the minutes of the ECB’s January meeting was similar to the Fed. Although Governing Council members noted that “for the first time in many meetings, the risks to reaching the inflation target were seen as broadly balanced or at least…