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Economy

Essentials
Industrial Metals Are First To Sniff Out A Recession
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, among the commodity groups, industrial metals provide the most reliable leading signal that the US economy is heading toward recession. Industrial metals’ greater exposure to the very…
2 years ago
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GeoMacro
Election Campaign Heads Into Summer

The stock market will suffer a setback from the weakening labor market and a rebound in US and global policy uncertainty.

Yushu Ma, Matt Gertken
2 years ago
Essentials
US CPI Inflation Eases In April
US headline CPI inflation decelerated to a softer-than-expected 0.3% m/m (3.4% y/y) in April, from 0.4% m/m (3.5% y/y). Core CPI eased from 0.4% m/m (3.5% y/y) to 0.3% m/m (3.4% y/y). Declines in new (-0.4% m/m) and used vehicles (-1.4% m/m) prices largely…
2 years ago
Essentials
US Retail Sales Stall In April, Revised Downwards In March
US retail sales remained unchanged in April, a downside surprise from expectations of 0.4% m/m growth. Notably, the retail sales control group (an input to GDP) declined by 0.3% m/m despite expectations of mild growth and all of the March figures were revised…
2 years ago
Essentials
Another Recession Signal Flashes Red
The 3-month moving average of the unemployment rate has been a reliable US recession indicator. Indeed, there has never been a case in the post-war era when it has increased by more than a third of a percentage point from its cycle low without a recession…
2 years ago
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FICC
Core Inflation Is Back On Track

Our updated views on Treasury yields and Fed policy following this morning’s CPI report.

2 years ago
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CoreMacro
The Superstar Economy: Part 3
Special Report

The US stock market’s record 50 percent valuation premium versus the non-US stock market is pricing generative AI to do through the next decade what the Web 2.0 network effect did through the last decade. But this is a huge ask, as it will be very difficult for the Web 2.0 superstar companies to become generative AI superstar companies, assuming there are indeed any lasting generative AI superstar companies. We go through the main long-term investment implications.

Dhaval Joshi
2 years ago
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CoreMacro
A Reality Check

A reality check on credit data and announced property sector support measures indicates that the recent surge in Chinese share prices is unjustified based on the country's economic fundamentals.

Jing Sima
2 years ago
China
Essentials
NFIB Survey Points To Softening Demand
On the surface, the Tuesday release of the NFIB Small Business Survey indicated resilience among small businesses. The headline index appreciated to 89.7 from 88.5, upending expectations of a moderation to 88.2.  However, the marginal improvement has not…
2 years ago
Essentials
Eurozone Near-Term Growth Prospects Improve
Investor and business sentiment continues to improve in the Eurozone. The ZEW Expectations series for the Eurozone (+3.1 to 47 in May) and Germany (+4.2 to 47.1, above expectations) strengthened to 27-month highs. Moreover, the spread between the expectations…
2 years ago

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