The S&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI improved from 49.5 to 50.4 in September, breaking a 17-month contraction streak. It corroborated solid broad-based retail sales growth in July and August. Confidence in the outlook also…
The ISM manufacturing PMI remained constant in September at 47.2, against expectations of a slower pace of decline and extending a six-month contraction streak. Measures of production and domestic demand decelerated at a…
The market got excited by the 50 bps Fed cut and China stimulus. But these are a recognition that economies are slowing significantly. Stocks often rally after the first Fed cut, before falling sharply. Investors should stay…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Market Strategy service, the monetary and fiscal policies announced last week are unlikely to produce a meaningful business cycle recovery in China. Below are actions the authorities…
Our expectation that a looming US recession will morph into a global recession remains intact. US monetary easing will only take effect with a lag and current deteriorating economic conditions are the product of past…
Preliminary estimates suggested that US durable goods orders stagnated in August after having surged 9.9% m/m in July, and beating expectations they would decline. Excluding the volatile transportation component, however, durable…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the surprise fiscal announcement from China’s Politburo is a very different animal from previous stimulus attempts. Although the details are still…
We highlighted last week that while the Politburo policy announcements are unlikely to produce a meaningful business cycle recovery in China, they nevertheless administered a shot of adrenaline to investor sentiment. Chinese…
Annual BEA data revisions resulted in a significant upward revision in GDP growth since Q2 2020, led by stronger consumption growth and more robust real disposable income growth than previously believed. Revisions also show…
France’s and Spain’s preliminary September CPI readings declined on a month-on-month basis, clocking in at 1.5% and 1.7% y/y respectively, and undershooting consensus expectations. Germany’s and Italy’s…