The US election is tightening in its final weeks, and the latest polls challenge our Geopolitical Strategy’s base case of a Democratic White House. The original thesis was built on the premise of a Democratic incumbent…

  The US dollar had a strong October thus far, breaching its 20-,50- and 200-day moving averages with a 4% increase and only three trading days in the red. The DXY now sits above where it was before the August selloff in risk…

  The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, its survey of business contacts, shows an economy that has seen little growth since early September. The Fed’s contacts confirmed the manufacturing recession reflected in other…

  After cutting three times already since June, the Bank of Canada fulfilled market expectations and cut the overnight rate by 50 bps to 3.75%. The BoC sees risks around inflation as roughly balanced over its projection horizon,…

  Flash estimates for European consumer confidence met expectations at -12.5 in October, rising from -12.9 in September. Despite this positive development, Euro Area sentiment remains poor. Consumer confidence remains below its…

  US Treasury yields rose nearly 60 bps since their September lows, with the 10-year maturity recently reaching 4.2%. This move was a bear steepening, the front of the curve did not rise as much. Positive economic surprises mainly…

  According to the latest estimate of the output gap, the US economy still operates above potential. Continued overheating – a no-landing scenario – would cause a drastic re-pricing across markets which expect a near-…

  Since the August selloff in risk assets, the main cross-asset driver was the shift from inflation worries to growth worries. Some of that price action has reversed, as TIPS breakeven inflation rates swiftly rebounded since early…

  The recent slump in globally- and tech-sensitive East Asian trade shows no respite, with advanced October Korean exports and September Taiwanese export orders data disappointing. Korean exports for the first 20 days of October…