Developed Countries
German factory orders contracted by a larger-than-anticipated 5.8% m/m (3.9% y/y) in August, from a 3.9% expansion (4.6% y/y). Domestically, Germany is constitutionally bound to maintain a balanced budget. The emergency pandemic funds disbursed in 2020 are…
The Swiss KOF Barometer is a composite leading indicator of the Swiss economy. It surprised to the upside in September coming in at 105.5 against expectations of 101.0. The August reading was also significantly revised higher, from 101.6 to 105.0. …
The dollar had erased all of its 2024 gains going into the fall, as markets prepared for Fed rate cuts. After a nearly 6% drawdown over the spring and summer, last week’s DXY rally brought the dollar back into the black YTD. Can these gains continue now…
This report looks at the likely path for the dollar and bond yields over the next 6-to-12 months.
The European Commission voted to impose tariffs of up to 45% on imports of Chinese electric vehicles (EVs). The announcement follows previous tariffs imposed on Chinese EV imports back in June. This new round of economic sanctions will only have a minor…
In response to the Chinese stimulus announced in late September, our Emerging Market strategists upgraded EM equities to no more than neutral. Indeed, while these measures have triggered a sentiment-fueled rally from depressed valuation levels, conditions…
September nonfarm payrolls grew by 254 thousand, from 155 thousand in August, handily exceeding expectations of 150 thousand. Pro-cyclical manufacturing jobs declined by a lower-than-anticipated 7 thousand, while leisure and hospitality, as well as…
The bond market priced out a lot of recession risk after this morning’s employment report, and the 10-year Treasury yield has moved back into the Soft Landing Zone. We assess the data and consider whether we need to change our cyclical positioning.
The ISM services PMI grew at an accelerating pace in September, from 51.5 to 54.9, handily exceeding expectations, and extending a three-month expansion streak. Growth was broad-based with an increasing number of industries (12 out of 17) reporting…
Comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on Thursday, hinting at “a more aggressive” pace of rate cuts, marked a shift in rhetoric from previous meetings which signaled a “gradual” pace. The GBP/USD fell on the news and money markets proceeded to…