Developed Countries
The S&P 500 is down by 17% year to date, while our portfolio is up 15%. US political analysis is essential for investors but it is best done by geopolitical method rather than Washington punditry.
Euro Area headline CPI inflation eased by more than anticipated in November. The annual rate moderated from 10.6% y/y to 10.0% y/y, while the monthly figure showed a 0.1% m/m decline in prices following October’s 1.5% m/m increase. Price decreases in energy…
US Q3 GDP was revised higher in the second estimate to 2.9% from the initial 2.6%. In particular, consumer spending is now estimated to have contributed 1.18 percentage points to GDP – up from the initial 0.97 percentage points – with stronger services…
Results from the Jolts Survey continue to indicate that the US labor market is softening. The number of job openings fell from 10.7 million to 10.3 million in October, in line with the general downtrend that started in Q2. The survey’s other measures…
After collapsing earlier this year, the US Economic Surprise Index has been recovering and returned to positive territory at the beginning of November. A positive reading indicates that economic data releases have generally surprised to the upside, beating…
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence index fell from 102.2 to 100.2 in November, marking a second consecutive month of decline following a brief improvement in Q3. Both the Present Situation and Expectations sub-indices declined from downwardly revised…
US financial conditions have recently eased in the US economy as equity prices climbed and the dollar weakened. While this latest move is a positive development for US economic activity, its durability is questionable. More importantly from a cyclical…
Australian material stocks have recently been outperforming the overall Aussie equity market, climbing 20% since late-September. Unsurprisingly, these gains coincide with the latest rally in industrial metal prices, which has seen copper, aluminum, and nickel…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service recommends that investors nudge portfolio duration up to neutral as we head into 2023. Then, starting in January, the team's task will be to call the cyclical peak in Treasury yields once they are confident that the…
The Chinese government will repress social unrest, then relax Covid-19 social restrictions to try to stabilize the economy. Russia will be aggressive in the short term but will pursue a ceasefire before March 2024. European and Italian risk will stay high on energy constraints.