Developed Countries
Durable manufactured goods orders slid by 1.8% m/m in November, following a downwardly revised 0.4% m/m. However, contracting transportation equipment orders (-6.3% m/m) drove the bulk of the overall decline in November (they had led the increases in durable…
The Barclays US Aggregate TR index lost 13.6% last year as the Fed’s tightening cycle’s impact on yields trumped the effect of a deteriorating economy. Although the weakness was broad-based, relatively safer segments of the bond market mostly performed…
BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service is more optimistic than the consensus among investors on the near-term outlook. In contrast to the prevailing negative mood, they expect global growth to surprise on the upside in 2023. In the US, the…
Inflation figures for individual Eurozone economies released this week suggest that price pressures have peaked on the Old Continent. Notably, the preliminary estimate of Germany’s harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) surprised to the downside,…
The European Commission risks retarding the development of long-term contracting for renewable energy just as momentum is building. Policy uncertainty will continue to dog firms and households in the EU, if the Commission's attempts to lower energy costs for consumers at the expense of renewable-energy producers by extending “windfall profits taxes” and mandated lower costs succeed. Such measures will lower producers’ revenues, which will translate into lower renewables investment.
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell deeper in contraction territory in December, falling to 48.4 from 49.0. Details of the report highlight that both domestic and foreign demand conditions are deteriorating at a faster pace. Notably, the production index…
Most US housing market data remained soft through the end of last year. The NAHB Housing Market index disappointed in December and building permits slumped by 11.2% m/m in November, presaging further declines in housing starts. The contraction in existing…
BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service continues to recommend a defensive portfolio positioning. The US economy is not yet in recession. But forward-looking data point to a slowdown – and Europe is probably already in recession. China is a wild…
Slowing growth would be bad for equities, but so would stronger growth since it would mean more rate hikes.
The BoJ shocked markets on December 20 by doubling its cap on Japan’s 10-year bond yield, now allowing it to rise to 0.5% from 0.25% previously. The December central bank meeting was widely expected to result in no change in monetary policy. The market…