Developed Countries
As expected, the ECB raised its three policy rates by 50bps on Thursday and signaled that it intends to raise interest rates by another 50bps at its next meeting in March. During the press conference, President Christine Lagarde underscored that the decision…
This US Bond Strategy Insight discusses what we learned from yesterday’s FOMC meeting and press conference, and discusses the implications of the market’s reaction.
As expected, the Fed downshifted the pace of rate hikes once again and delivered a 25bp rate increase at its Wednesday meeting. Changes to the post-meeting press release support the decision to shift to a less hawkish stance. In particular, the…
Results of the December JOLTS survey indicate that the US labor market remains extremely tight. Job openings unexpectedly jumped from 10.4 million to 11.0 million, surprising expectations of a decline to 10.3 million. As such, the job openings rate increased…
President Biden’s political capital has fallen as he enters a challenging year that will include a domestic faceoff with the House Republicans and foreign crises stemming from China, Russia, and Iran. Stay defensive and prefer bonds over equities.
When does rising unemployment become a bigger problem than inflation? The Fed won't cut rates until that happens, probably thwarting market hopes of big cuts in 2H.
The Web 2.0 bubble is bursting, with far-reaching consequences for US stock market behaviour, sector allocation, and global asset allocation.
The Employment Cost Index decelerated to a lower-than-expected 1.0% q/q in Q4 following 1.2%, corroborating several other indicators suggesting that wage growth is moderating in the US. Compensation within goods-producing industries grew at a constant 0.9%…
The preliminary GDP estimate suggests that the Euro Area economy expanded by 0.1% q/q in Q4 2022, beating expectations of a 0.1% q/q contraction. The improving energy situation due to milder-than-anticipated weather, as well as generous fiscal support…
Bonds started off the new year with a bang. So far in 2023, the Barclays US and Global Aggregate indices have returned 2.7% and 3.3%, respectively. These gains come after last year’s historic broad-based bond market selloff when the global monetary policy…