Developed Countries

The US core consumer price index grew 0.38% in March, down from 0.45% in February and the lowest monthly print since November. The year-over-year core inflation rate is still a worryingly high 5.60%, but there is mounting evidence that a downtrend has begun. …

3 years ago

Essentials

BoC Pushes Back Against 2023 Rate Cut Expectations

As expected, the Bank of Canada held the policy rate unchanged at 4.5% for the second consecutive time on Wednesday. In the Monetary Policy Report, the central bank revised up its GDP forecast for 2023 from 1.0% to 1.4%, but revised down the 2024 estimate to…

3 years ago

Essentials

Less Positive

Prior to the early-March bank turmoil, a good-news-is-bad-news narrative was the dominant force driving financial markets. At the time, signs of resilient demand and lingering price pressures – on the back of the January US jobs report, robust consumer…

3 years ago

Essentials

Too Many Cuts Priced For 2023

According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, the US economy will be strong enough to avoid rate cuts in 2023. As such, the 49 bps of rate cuts priced in for 2023 are misplaced. The minutes from the March FOMC meeting contained a few interesting…

3 years ago

GeoMacro

Is Geopolitical Risk Blowing Over? (GeoRisk Update)

No, the secular rise in geopolitical risk has not peaked. EU-China trade ties underscore the multipolar context, but this multipolarity is unbalanced, as the US has not reached a new equilibrium with its rivals. While the second quarter is murky, investors should stay defensive this year on the whole.

3 years ago

FICC

One And Done

Today’s releases of the March CPI and March FOMC minutes do not change our view that the Fed will deliver one more 25 basis point rate increase before going on hold.

3 years ago

Bonds

CoreMacro

Think US Layoffs Aren’t Rising? Think Again

Through February and March, the number of US ‘job losers’ surged by almost half a million. Constituting the largest two-month increase in Americans who have lost their job since the depth of the pandemic. Unless we see a big drop in the number of job losers in the coming months, the correct investment strategy is still to position for a US recession that starts in 2023.

3 years ago

Essentials

Eurozone Investors Remain Pessimistic About The Future

On the surface, the Eurozone Sentix sent a positive signal about investor confidence. The headline index rose from -11.1 to -8.7, beating expectations of a more muted improvement to -10.1. However, a five-point rise in the Current Climate series – which…

3 years ago

Essentials

US Small Businesses Face Tougher Borrowing Conditions

Results from the US NFIB survey reveal that small businesses grew slightly more pessimistic in March with the Optimism index relapsing to 90.1 from 90.9. Importantly, small business owners face greater difficulty accessing credit. The net share of…

3 years ago

Essentials

Will Eurozone Stocks Continue Outperforming?

Euro Area stocks have gained 41.4% in USD terms since their late-September bottom. In the process, they have outperformed their US counterparts by 29%. After a brief period of weakness during the early-March bank turmoil, Eurozone equities are once again…

3 years ago

Developed Countries

Related Topics