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Developed Countries

Distance Makes The Heart Grow Fonder: Webcast Follow-Up

Investors remain cautious about the US economy and still have significant cash that needs to be put to work which could extend the rally further. Earnings rebound later in the year will be supported by rising sales growth and surging earnings of the Magnificent Seven. A restocking cycle, and a pickup in freight activity support transports. Upgrade Transports to an overweight.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
US: Inflationary Pressures Moderate, Consumption Growth Accelerates
US economic data released on Friday continued the string of good news about the US economy. On the inflation front, core PCE inflation – the Fed’s preferred gauge of underlying price pressures – softened to 0.165% m/m in June. On an annualized basis, this…
Daily Insights
BoJ Commits To "Greater Flexibility"
On Friday, the Bank of Japan announced an important tweak to its yield curve control (YCC) program. Although it maintained the 0.5% cap on 10-year bond yields, it indicated that it will manage the program with “greater flexibility” such that the 0.5% level is…
Daily Insights
On The Broadening US Equity Rally
A narrow equity rally was the key characteristic of the US stock market in the first five months of the year. Despite concerns about the domestic economic situation due to ongoing monetary tightening, and poor external dynamics – China’s underwhelming…
Daily Insights
Taking Stock Of The US Earnings Season
We are now midway through the Q2 2023 earnings season: 254 of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported. It’s therefore worthwhile to stand back and observe some of the emerging trends. According to Refinitiv IBES, 78.7% of companies have reported…
Daily Insights
The US Dollar Is Vulnerable To A Structural Decline
BCA Research’s Bank Credit Analyst service recently featured currency valuation models developed by our Foreign Exchange Strategy service. According to these models, the US dollar is extremely overvalued and thus vulnerable to a structural decline. When…
Daily Insights
Month-In-Review: The Dollar, The Economy, And Central Banks

The DXY will continue to have near-term upside, as economic growth holds up in the US, while it deteriorates in other parts of the world. Remain constructive on the DXY at current levels, but pivot to a short position on evidence US growth is boosting the rest of the world.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
The Soft Landing Dilemma

A look at recent US data on economic growth and inflation, with an update on the implications for monetary policy and bond yields.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
More Positive Surprises From US Economic Data
On the surface, US economic data delivered strong upside surprises on Thursday. The advance estimate of GDP growth shows economic activity accelerated from 2.0% to 2.4% in Q2 – surprising expectations of a slowdown to 1.8%. Similarly, durable goods orders…
Daily Insights
ECB: Informed By Data
As expected, the ECB delivered a 25 basis point rate increase on Thursday, raising the policy rate to its 2001 record high of 3.75% and marking its ninth consecutive rate increase. The most important takeaway from the meeting is the absence of forward…
Daily Insights

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