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Developed Countries

Global Manufacturing: A Positive Signal From Sweden
The Global Manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 48.7 in July, indicating that the pace of decline steadied at the start of the third quarter. The details of the release show accelerating rates of decline in production, new orders, and new export orders.…
Daily Insights
Is The RBA Done With Rate Hikes?
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates on hold at 4.1% on Tuesday, surprising expectations of a 25bps increase. Governor Philip Lowe’s statement underscores that the decision “will provide further time to assess the impact of” the 4 percentage…
Daily Insights
What Will Be The Key Drivers Of A US Earnings Rebound?
It is widely expected by consensus that earnings growth will rebound into the year-end and into 2024. Multiple factors will drive the reacceleration in earnings growth. Sales growth will pick up: In the remainder of the year, sales growth will pick up from…
Daily Insights
July In Review
The performance of global financial markets continued to improve in July, with most of the major financial assets we track generating positive abnormal returns for the second consecutive month. Asian markets led this dynamic with Chinese investable stocks…
Daily Insights
Monthly Portfolio Update: Slower Inflation, Then Slower Growth

History suggests that a “soft landing” is highly unlikely after such an aggressive Fed tightening cycle. The rally could continue for a little longer but, on the 12-month horizon, market risks are very skewed to the downside.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
Eurozone Growth Improves, Core Inflation Sticky
The Eurozone economy returned to expansion in the second quarter with real GDP rising by 0.3% q/q – beating expectations of 0.2% q/q. This follows an upwardly revised 0.0% in Q1 and a 0.1% contraction in Q4 2022. In particular, Ireland (+3.3%) and Lithuania,…
Daily Insights
July Survey Results: H1 2024 US Recession, US Equity Outperformance
In the monthly Daily Insights Survey we conducted over the past week, we asked about our readers’ outlook for the US economy, regional equity allocation, and EUR/USD. On the outlook for the US economy, the majority of respondents (59%) expect the next…
Daily Insights
Falling Inflation Could Sow The Seeds Of Its Own Demise
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, it is too early to conclude that the Fed can stop raising rates. Consumption and real income growth are highly correlated. If inflation continues to fall, real wages will rise further. If that…
Daily Insights
Data Dependent

The ECB’s tone has changed decisively. Intransigent forward guidance is gone; data dependency is in. What does this transition mean for the path of European interest rates and the euro?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Distance Makes The Heart Grow Fonder: Webcast Follow-Up

Investors remain cautious about the US economy and still have significant cash that needs to be put to work which could extend the rally further. Earnings rebound later in the year will be supported by rising sales growth and surging earnings of the Magnificent Seven. A restocking cycle, and a pickup in freight activity support transports. Upgrade Transports to an overweight.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel

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