Developed Countries
In this insight, we assess the prospect of the Swiss franc over the next six months.
As expected, the Bank of England delivered another 25 basis point rate increase at its Thursday meeting, lifting the policy rate to 5.25%. Going forward, Bailey – not unlike his counterparts at the Fed and ECB – highlighted that the MPC will be…
The recent ‘Goldilocks’ stock market rally is predicated on the hope that developed countries really can kill inflation without killing their economies. But one important warning sign suggests that the rally has gone too far too fast, and is vulnerable to…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy and Geopolitical Strategy services, Russia is likely to cut oil production to pressure the West as a part of its war effort. This cut would push oil prices to above $90/bbl, in line with the team’s…
The Supreme Court is a generator of certainty rather than uncertainty for US markets. In the event of a constitutional crisis, a court intervention will likely reduce volatility.
The ADP Jobs Report delivered a better-than-anticipated signal about the US labor market on Wednesday. The 324 thousand increase in private employment in July beat expectations of a 190 thousand rise and marks the second highest reading in a year following…
The US Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) reveals that US banks continue to tighten lending standards for commercial and industrial (C&I), commercial real estate (CRE), residential real estate (RRE), home equity lines of credit…
Caterpillar’s Q2 earnings results released on Tuesday beat consensus estimates by a wide margin. Second quarter profit of $2.92 billion ($5.67 per share) came in well above expectations of $2.38 billion ($4.46 per share). The stock jumped to an all time high…
US financial markets were dealt a summer shock yesterday with Fitch Ratings lowering its sovereign credit rating on the US to AA+ from AAA. This brings the rating down to the same level as that of S&P, which announced its own US downgrade nearly twelve…
Collapsed complexity, plus the unwinding of favourable base effects and favourable seasonal adjustments to the inflation and jobs numbers, all pose a danger to the Goldilocks market.