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Developed Countries

Tokyo’s headline CPI inflation fell below expectations in August, easing from 3.2% y/y to 2.9% y/y – slightly below anticipations of 3.0% y/y and the first dip below 3% in nearly one year. Similarly, the slowdown in the ex-fresh food measure from 3.0% y/y to…
Eurozone money supply data reflect the impact of the ECB’s aggressive tightening campaign on the region’s economy. Data released on Monday showed the July M3 measure of broad money (the sum of M2, repurchase agreements, money market fund shares/units and…
With the US presidential election approaching, our US political strategists are warning investors that stock markets are not immune to politics and geopolitics. Our colleagues have shown that out of 28 bear markets since the Civil War, 17 of them have…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the profit outlook for Eurozone earnings continues to deteriorate. The team’s earnings model for Eurozone equities continues to point to a deepening profit contraction in the order of 24%…

Today’s Strategy Report chartbook presents the data underpinning our view that both inflation and growth are slowing, likely pointing to a recession beginning sometime in the first half of next year. We are tactically equal weight across asset classes after being stopped out of our equity overweight on August 17th and expect our next move will be to underweight equities and overweight fixed income, in line with our twelve-month view.

Countries and commercial operators are racing into space to accrue economic gain from space exploration. In coming years, the space industry will continue to grow, as humans venture into space for tourism, mining, farming, and even habitation. The industry is still in its infancy but has tremendous potential. We believe it is one of the next big investment ideas. We will monitor the theme and take on investment exposure once it matures.

The profit outlook for the Eurozone continues to deteriorate. Find out what the drivers behind this deterioration are.

Germany’s IFO survey sent a downbeat message on Friday. The headline Business Climate Index fell by 1.7 points to 85.7, below expectations of 86.8 and near the 85.2 level at which it bottomed in October. A 2.4-point decline in the Current Assessment…
The final release of the University of Michigan’s gauge of US consumer inflation expectations unexpectedly rose in August. It shows 1-year ahead inflation expectations increased by a tenth of a percentage point to 3.5% (an upwards revision from the…
The Treasury market’s reaction to Fed Chair Jermone Powell’s Jackson Hole speech was relatively tame on Friday. Although there was some volatility during the speech, the 10-year yield ended the day broadly unchanged. Meanwhile, the 2-year yield rose by 5.5…