Developed Countries
The ZEW survey of investor sentiment sent an optimistic signal on Tuesday. German sentiment rebounded sharply from -11.4 to -1.1 in October – its highest level since April. Lower inflation expectations and a sharp increase in the share of respondents…
Friday the 13th marked the official start of the Q3-2023 earnings season. While the consensus is for modest earnings and sales growth, there may be some surprises in store for investors. Street Expectations According to Refinitiv IBES, analysts…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, Trump is lined up to win the Republican presidential nomination by March 19, 2024. The takeaway is greater risk of party change, higher US and global policy uncertainty, and higher US equity…
Q3-2023 is expected to mark the end of the earnings recession for the past three quarters, opening the door to positive earnings growth. Whether that would be sustainable or will sputter once the recession settles in as expected in 2024 remains to be seen. However, much of earnings growth is already priced in.
As expected, the New York Fed’s Empire State Survey sent a pessimistic signal about manufacturing conditions in October. The general business conditions index weakened from 1.9 to -4.6, albeit better than expectations of a more pronounced decline to -6.0.…
Results of the Banks of Canada’s Q3 business and consumer surveys reveal that the aggressive tightening cycle is dampening economic agents’ sentiment. Putting aside the sharp decline at the onset of the pandemic in Q2 2020, the Business Outlook Survey (BOS)…
US financial conditions have tightened meaningfully in Q3. While the Goldman Sachs index remains below where it was a year ago, it crossed above the 100 line in late September into restrictive levels after spending most of the year in accommodative territory.…
The Japanese yen has depreciated by 12.6% against the USD year-to-date. This exceeds the 1.6% depreciation and 0.8% appreciation by the euro and British pound against the US dollar respectively. With the higher-for-longer narrative now becoming the mainstream…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the euro's correction is now advanced. During the first week of the month, EUR/USD briefly dipped below 1.045. Previously, the team argued it would buy EUR/USD below 1.04. A dip to this…
More equity volatility is coming in the short run. Trump’s nomination looks to be smooth, which marginally reduces the incumbent party advantage and increases policy uncertainty.