Developed Countries

The market will eventually be forced to react to rising odds of a sharp US national policy reversal. Investors should overweight government bonds and defensive equity sectors.

The US manufacturing renaissance, spurred on by reshoring, automation, and government spending, is running its course but progress has slowed on the back of tight monetary conditions and the manufacturing recession. The deceleration of these positive trends weighs on the outlook for the Capital Goods industry group, impeding its performance over the short term. However, we reiterate that positive long-term trends for the industry remain intact. We downgrade Capital Goods to a tactical underweight. It remains a strategic overweight.

The soft-landing narrative has won, but is too much of a good thing now expected by investors?

We share the edited transcript of a webinar we participated in discussing global trade, trade wars and tariffs, as well as de-risking strategies.

In this note, we preview the Q4-2023 earnings season and share what we will be watching.

In this brief Insight we examine the expanding Middle East conflict and update the situation in the Taiwan Strait on the eve of elections. The Houthis are a distraction and China is not likely to invade Taiwan in the near term, but both situations support our overweight of US equities relative to global. Global growth is likely to slow while commodities are likely to see at least minor supply shocks.