Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Developed Countries

F_IMAGE_20240308_135522.PNG
Stay The Course On Treasury Positioning

We update the indicators in our duration checklist following this morning’s employment report.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
F_IMAGE_20240308_125013.PNG
Biden’s Still Alive, But Can He Kick?

Democrats are still slightly favored for reelection as the incumbent party is presiding over a growing economy. However, Biden’s strong showing in the primary election is not lifting his popular approval yet, and that is a worrying sign. Policy uncertainty should rise sharply, which is marginally negative for the stock market.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken
US January JOLTS Report: Persistent Resilience
The US January JOLTS data released yesterday was in line with expectations, with job openings clocking in at 8.86 million versus a downwardly-revised 8.89 million in December. Importantly, US job openings are likely to continue trending lower in February…
Daily Insights
The Bank Of Canada Remains On A Dovish Path
The Bank of Canada (BoC) kept its policy rate steady at 5% for the sixth consecutive meeting yesterday, in line with expectations. The BoC, which has changed its communication policy to now provide a press conference after every meeting, reasserted the need…
Daily Insights
Germany's Economic Challenges Amid Eurozone Resilience
BCA’s European Investment Strategy team continues to expect the German economy to trail that of the rest of Europe. Since 2020, Germany has fallen behind, with its real GDP lagging that of the broader Eurozone by 5%. The contribution of consumption to GDP…
Daily Insights
A Good Time To Book Profits On Homebuilder Stocks?
The S&P 500 Homebuilders index has returned a whopping 50% since October and outperformed the overall market by 24% over this period. Tight US housing supply is placing a floor under construction activity and constitutes a long-term tailwind to…
Daily Insights
Investors Should Not Chase The Rally
Our US Equity Strategy service released their Sector Chart Pack where they took stock of the recent earnings season and developments in the S&P 500. They observed that this February marked the strongest performance in the S&P 500 over the past nine…
Daily Insights
F_IMAGE_20240306_103246.PNG
Expected Inflation Surges, Just As Expected

Expected inflation has surged to its highest level in a year. This has surprised many people, but expected inflation is behaving just as expected. Expected inflation is not a prophecy, it is just a mathematical function of delivered inflation. We discuss what this means for central banks in the US, UK, euro area, and Japan. Plus: bitcoin’s structural uptrend to $100,000+ is still intact.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
A Closer Look At February's US Services PMI
The US ISM Services PMI declined slightly to 52.6 in February, just below expectations of 53. Overall, the service sector continues to expand, however, the recent ISM suggests that growth is slowing down. In fact, most of the components of the ISM…
Daily Insights
Dax 40 Reaches New Highs: How Much Further Upside?
The stock market of the Eurozone’s largest economy keeps grinding higher with the DAX 40 closing at new highs last week. Since its October low, the index of German blue-chip companies advanced by 20%. Does this rally have legs? On a relative basis,…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

AI BCA Indicators/Model BDCs Bubbles/Crises/Manias Commodities Commodities & Energy Sector Country In-Focus Currencies Defaults Deleveraging See more Topics