Highlights Rising equity prices, low and falling bond yields and stable credit spreads are all consistent with today's low growth and inflation backdrop, where the Fed can take its time raising rates. The FOMC is looking through…
Highlights The main driving force behind EM risk assets this year has been downshifting U.S. interest rates and a weak U.S. dollar. These factors have more than offset the relapse in commodity prices and the deteriorating growth…
Highlights Crude oil prices will find support from stronger EM trade volumes, which broke out of an extended low-growth period at the end of last year and finished 1Q17 on a very strong note. Sustained growth in EM trade volumes will…
Highlights Although it is tempting to argue that emerging markets are in a new era where past correlations no longer matter, our belief is that it is only a matter of time until fundamentals reassert themselves. Several measures of…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Upgrade capital markets stocks to overweight and put them on the high-conviction list. Capital formation is poised to accelerate in the second half of the year. Our Indicators suggest that demand for…
Please note that we are publishing a Special Report today titled "EM Local Bonds: Looking At Hedged Yields". Feature Commodities prices have plunged lately, even though the U.S. dollar, up until this past week, has been weak…
Highlights Duration: U.S. growth expectations have become overly pessimistic. A Q2 rebound will lead to higher global bond yields and a steeper U.S. Treasury curve. UST / Bund Spread: The extreme divergence between the European and U.…
Highlights We are going long spot gold at tonight's closing price, given our view that inflation and inflation expectations will continue to move higher going into 2018. In the U.S., we expect higher fiscal spending and tax cuts…
Highlights Ongoing monetary tightening in China poses a substantial threat to EM risk assets. Yet financial markets remain highly complacent. Mind the gap between EM risk assets and commodities currencies/various commodities prices.…