Highlights Portfolio Strategy The S&P hotels, resorts and cruise lines index will suffer from a profit margin squeeze, which should weigh on valuations. Cut exposure to underweight. A cyclical capex recovery is a boon for…
Highlights The law of the vital few states that a small number of causes have a disproportionate impact on your overall investment performance. Get the bond yield direction right and your equity sector allocation, equity country…
Highlights Monetary Policy: A prominent Fed Governor has acknowledged that inflation expectations have become un-anchored to the downside. This is an important signal and suggests that the Fed will keep policy easy enough for inflation…
Highlights Despite a tightening in Chinese monetary conditions, dollar bloc currencies have continued to rally. Rising global reserves and strong carry inflows into EM prompted by low global financial volatility have created plentiful…
Highlights The rise in the yen sparked by the verbal confrontation between the U.S. and North Korea is creating an opportunity to buy USD/JPY. The DXY is set to stabilize and may even rebound, removing a key support for the yen. The U…
Highlights To change our EM strategy, we would need to change our view on China and accept that China's credit bubble - especially in combination with the ongoing policy tightening - does not constitute a material risk to mainland…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Reviving global trade and an enticing domestic operating backdrop mean that, after a 5-month hiatus, it is once again time to ride the rails. Even a modest reacceleration in global export volumes and…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Swap consumer staples into financials in our pair trade versus the tech sector. Relative profit fundamentals signal that this relative share price ratio will soon come alive. Global growth tailwinds…