Corporate Profits

Highlights EM equity valuations are neutral. Relative to the U.S., EM share prices do offer some value, but this primarily reflects elevated valuations within the S&P 500. According to the cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio, EM stocks are cheap for investors with a long-term time horizon -…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy Internal dynamics warn that a broad market consolidation phase has begun. The jump in growth vs. value stocks has provided an opportunity to shift to a neutral style bias. Transports have sold off sharply, but downside risks have not yet been fully expunged,…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy Contrary to popular perception, non-cyclical sectors have led the market so far this year, while deep cyclical sectors are breaking down, in relative performance terms. Our models point to more of the same ahead. The oversold rebound in the pharmaceutical group…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy A relapse in the global financials sector threatens to spill into U.S. financials as credit growth sinks. Bank equities are the most vulnerable to such a phase, given their reliance on rising interest rate expectations rather than increased lending. Take profits…

Highlights Since the 1950s, the trends in margins and earnings growth have been one and the same: as profit margins decline, so does earnings growth. The decline in profit margins that began in early 2015 has gone on hiatus for the past two quarters. But this rebound in margins is unlikely to…

Highlights Nervousness and uncertainty abound within the investment community, but greed is overwhelming fear as the U.S. equity market breaks out and other stock markets test the upside. Technical conditions are stretched and a correction is overdue, but investors can at least take some…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy Pricing power has improved across a number of industries, with the exception of technology, a necessary development to sustain an overall profit recovery. The S&P railroads index has surged to the point where it will take massive upside earnings surprises to…

Highlights U.S. policy uncertainty has increased again early in the New Year. President Trump's inaugural speech highlighted that he has not tempered his "America First" policy prescription. The Trump/GOP agenda is still a moving target, but three key risks have emerged for financial markets. A…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy Media stocks are poised to challenge previous relative performance highs as sales growth reaccelerates. Stay overweight. The materials sector has lagged behind the commodity price rally, a sign of underlying weakness rather than latent strength. Chemicals…

Highlights BCA's U.S. Equity Strategy team would like to wish our clients a healthy, happy and prosperous New Year. Portfolio Strategy The growth vs. value style bias is due for a bounce, but beyond the near run, the outlook has become more balanced. Stick with a small vs. large cap bias…