Special Report

In late-summer 2010, we published a Special Report overviewing long-term U.S. equity sector relative performance during deflationary periods. Since then, inflation – core PCE deflator to be more specific – only briefly flirted…

Energy Stocks Are Heading North  Banks Clamoring For Higher Rates And A More Hawkish Fed  Homebuilding Stocks Are Catching Up To Housing Starts  Will Global Trade Get “Fed-Exed”?  Do Not Try To Bottom Fish……

Highlights While a self-fulfilling crisis of confidence that plunges the global economy into recession cannot be excluded, it is far from our base case. Provided the trade war does not spiral out of control, it is highly likely that…

  Underweight The latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey made for grim reading and such souring in confidence will continue to weigh on lodging equities (second panel). As a result, we remain underweight the…

Special Report

Highlights It will be impossible for China to undertake even mild deleveraging and simultaneously accelerate household income growth. All deposits in the banking system have been created by banks “out of thin air” and have…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy The sustained global growth slowdown, widening junk spreads, along with the risk of a U.S. recession becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy suggest that caution is still warranted in the broad equity market…

Highlights Markets expressed disappointment over last week’s FOMC meeting, … : Equities sold off, Treasury yields slid, and the curve flattened. … but we didn’t think there was all that much to get excited…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy Despite the Fed’s supra natural powers, the deep rooted global growth slowdown will likely win the tug of war versus flush liquidity, especially if the trade war spat stays unresolved and the U.S.…