Our US Beige Book monitor – which we use to gauge changes in the language of the Fed’s report – continues to signal lackluster US economic conditions. Historically, the monitor has closely tracked real GDP…
Chinese private sector credit demand remained weak in February, sending a negative signal about domestic economic conditions. Total social financing growth slowed from a record CNY6.5 trillion in January to CNY1.56 trillion,…
The Eurozone Sentix Economic index improved from -12.9 to -10.5 in March, marking a fifth month of improved sentiment amongst investors and economic agents. Notably, the Expectation subindex rose to a 25-month high of -2.3 from -…
The US retail sales report for February delivered a disappointing signal on Thursday. Although retail sales returned to expansion, the 0.6% m/m increase fell below anticipations of a 0.8% m/m rise. In addition, the prior month…
There is a general consensus among BCA Research strategists that a US recession is highly likely over the next two years. While last month our Global Investment strategists reduced the probability that a recession will…
The latest MBA weekly survey shows mortgage applications rose 7.1% in the week ending March 8 on the back of a 4.7% increase in purchases and a 12.2% rise in refinancing, marking the second consecutive weekly increase. Higher…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, a very substantial PSL financing scheme for housing, a large LG and LGFV debt swap, and considerable fiscal transfers to households—or a combination…
Chinese stocks are experiencing their longest rally since the country’s exit from Covid restrictions over a year ago. The MSCI Onshore and Investable indices (in USD terms) have gained 15.8% and 9.1% respectively since…
Results of the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations showed an uptick in medium- and long-term inflation expectations in February. Specifically, the three-year ahead measure rebounded from a record low of 2.4% to 2…
Our US Investment Strategy service examines the state of consumer finances in the context of their view that a recession will materialize this year with a double-digit peak-to-trough decline in S&P 500 earnings expectations…