Chart III-1Fiscal Policy Will Tighten In 2019  The Colombian economy is set to undergo another phase of growth retrenchment: The government is planning to reduce the overall fiscal deficit from 4.5% to 2.4% of GDP by the end…

We published a Special Alert report titled Turkey: Book Profits On Shorts yesterday. The link is available on page 18. This report is Part 2 of an overview of the cyclical profiles of emerging market (EM) economies. This all-in-charts…

The structural long-term outlook for Colombia is positive, as a combination of pro-market orthodox policies and reform initiatives amid positive tailwinds from demographic should ensure a reasonably high potential GDP growth rate. In the…

Highlights The global trade slowdown will intensify, even if U.S. domestic demand remains robust. The large emerging Asian bourses will recouple to the downside with their EM peers. Market-neutral EM equity portfolios should consider…

Special Report

Feature Valuations, whether for currencies, equities, or bonds, are always at the top of the list of the determinants of any asset's long-term performance. This means that after large FX moves like those experienced this year, it…

Highlights Duration: An environment characterized by strong global growth and a weak dollar is very bearish for U.S. bonds. According to our model, fair value for the 10-year Treasury yield is 2.6%. Stay at below-benchmark duration.…

Highlights Please note that today we are publishing an abbreviated Weekly Bulletin as tomorrow we will publish Great Debate: Does China Have Too Much Debt Or Too Much Savings? The latter report will elaborate on long-standing view…

Special Report

Highlights A central bank cannot control/target the quantity and price of money simultaneously. For the past few years, China's central bank has silently moved away from controlling money growth toward targeting interest rates.…

Special Report

In a February Special Report titled "Assessing Fair Value In FX Markets" we introduced a set of long-term valuation models based on various fundamentals. We have updated the results and added KRW, INR, PHP, HKD, CLP and COP to our…

Special Report

Colombia's structural growth outlook is superior to many other developing economies. In the near-term, however, Colombia's economy is set to weaken materially. Upgrade Colombian equities and sovereign credit to neutral versus EM…