Highlights Bonds As A Safe Haven: Global bond yields have been driven lower by safe haven buying, despite ample evidence of faster global growth and central bankers that are still biased to shift to a less easy policy stance. There is…
Highlights Based on long-term moving averages and the advance/decline line, the dollar selloff is still only a severe correction. These factors need to be monitored closely as they stand on the edge. To rebound, the dollar will need U.…
GAA DM Equity Country Allocation Model Update The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of August 30th, 2017. The model has continued to reduce its allocation to the U.S. driven by worsening liquidity condition, and it…
Highlights Despite a tightening in Chinese monetary conditions, dollar bloc currencies have continued to rally. Rising global reserves and strong carry inflows into EM prompted by low global financial volatility have created plentiful…
Highlights The bottom in the dollar will have to wait for clearer signs that U.S. inflation has hit a trough. DXY is unlikely to punch below its May 2016 low. We examine balance of payments dynamics across the G10. This analysis…
Highlights Major central banks outside the U.S. have fired a warning shot across the bow of global bond markets by signaling that "emergency" levels of monetary accommodation are no longer required. Pipeline inflation…
Highlights The Fed is behind the curve in raising rates, as is the Bank of Canada, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and the Swedish Riksbank. In contrast, the Bank of Japan, the ECB, and the Swiss…
Highlights DM Rates Strategy: Many central banks are responding to the strong global economic backdrop by signaling not only a shift in the bias of monetary policy, but actual changes in interest rates or asset purchases. We continue…