One of the structural challenges Brazil faces is its public debt overhang. The authorities have responded by periodically embarking on fiscal and monetary austerity. Yet, such austerity depresses nominal growth and has in fact…
Please note: There will be no Strategy Report next week, July 15. Our next publication will be a Thematic: Charts That Matter, on July 22. Highlights For any country with local currency public debt, the ultimate constraints to lower…
The Brazilian real was up 1.4% versus the dollar on Thursday – a day of broad dollar strength. The gain comes on the back of the Central Bank of Brazil’s decision to hike rates by 75 bps for the third consecutive time…
Highlights Global oil markets will remain balanced this year with OPEC 2.0's production-management strategy geared toward maintaining the level of supply just below demand. This will keep inventories on a downward trajectory,…
Highlights US natural gas prices will remain well supported over the April-October injection season, as the global economic expansion gains traction, particularly in Europe, which also is refilling depleted storage levels. China's…
Highlights Rising CO2 emissions on the back of stronger global energy growth this year will keep energy markets focused on expanding ESG risks in the buildout of renewable generation via metals mining (Chart of the Week). …
Highlights Stronger global growth in the wake of continued and expected fiscal and monetary stimulus, and progress against COVID-19 are boosting oil demand assumptions by the major data suppliers for this year. We lifted our…
Highlights The Biden administration is combining Trumpian nationalism with a renewed push for US innovation in a major infrastructure bill that is highly likely to become law. Populism and Great Power struggle with China and Russia are…
Highlights The Biden Administration's $2.25 trillion infrastructure plan rolled out yesterday will, at the margin, boost global demand for energy and base metals more than expected later this year and next. Global GDP growth…
Dear client, In addition to this week’s abbreviated report, we are also sending you a Special Report on currency hedging, authored by my colleague Xiaoli Tang. Xiaoli’s previous work mapped out a dynamic hedging strategy for…