BCA Indicators/Model

Executive Summary Chart 1Quant Model Prediction Vs. Past Outcomes Introducing The US Political Strategy Quantitative House Election Model…

Executive Summary Global inflation will peak sometime in the next few months, a process that has likely already begun in the US. This will give policymakers some breathing room to turn less hawkish, a more credible stance given softening global growth…

Executive Summary German GeoRisk Indicator German GeoRisk Indicator…

Highlights All four of our US Equity indicators are currently pointing in a bearish direction. Our Monetary Indicator has fallen to a three decade low, our Technical Indicator has broken into negative territory, our Valuation Indicator still signals…

Highlights Several factors point to both an improvement and a deterioration in economic and financial market conditions, underscoring that the 6- to 12-month investment outlook is unavoidably uncertain. On the one hand, the US will likely avoid a…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Dear Client, In lieu of our weekly report next week, I will be hosting a webcast on Tuesday with my colleague Mathieu Savary, Chief European Strategist, on the implications of stagflation on…

Highlights There is no evidence of a decline in US corporate credit or bank lending spreads over the past few decades, meaning that any excess savings effect structurally depressing interest rates is occurring in the Treasury market. We note the possible…

Executive Summary For the Fed, maintaining its credibility with a long sequence of rate hikes that does not crash the economy, real estate market, and stock market is akin to the ‘Hail Mary’ move of (American) football. The likelihood that the Fed…

Executive Summary Russia Not Prepared To Invade West Ukraine Yet Imbalance Of Terror (GeoRisk Update…

Executive Summary We look at the Ukraine crisis in the broader context of shocks, what we can learn from them, and how we can incorporate them into our strategy for investment, and life in general. Our high-conviction view is that the Ukraine crisis will…