Asset Allocation

Our preferred tactical global fixed income trades for the rest of 2022 into early 2023 are all expressions of our views on relative monetary policy shifts within the main developed market economies. These involve bets on a relatively more hawkish Fed and Bank of England versus a relatively more dovish ECB and Bank of Canada, while also betting on additional selling pressure on Italian government bonds.

This week, we present our quarterly review of the BCA Research Global Fixed Income Strategy (GFIS) model bond portfolio for Q3/2022. We also discuss the model portfolio’s expected performance over next 3-6 months after our recent moves to reduce overall duration exposure and increase the underweight to US Treasuries.

This week’s <i>Global Investment Strategy</i> report titled Fourth Quarter 2022 Strategy Outlook: A Three-Act Play discusses the outlook for the global economy and financial markets for the rest of 2022 and beyond.

Executive Summary Upward Repricing Of Bond Yields Continues Upward Repricing Of Bond Yields Continues…

Listen to a short summary of this report     Executive Summary On the eve of the pandemic, most developed economies were operating at close to full capacity – the aggregate supply curve, in other words, had become very steep (or inelastic…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary Investors Are Pricing In A Much More Aggressive Tightening Cycle Than At The Start Of The Year Investors Are Pricing In A…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary US Lead On Mega-Sized Firms: Is A Peak Nigh? America's Lead On Mega-Sized Companies: Is A Peak Nigh…

The Global Investment Strategy service tactically downgraded equities in February but then upgraded them in May. The decision to upgrade equities to overweight in May was clearly premature, as stocks fell significantly in June. However, the rally in July…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary The odds of a recession in the US are lower than widely perceived. The probability of a recession is higher in Europe, although this week’s partial resumption of gas flows…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary The TIPS Market Foresees A Sharp Deceleration In Inflation What If The TIPS Are Right…