Inflation/Deflation

FICC

Bond Yield Breakout Or Buying Opportunity?

Our latest views on the recent increase in Treasury yields and some key things to watch at next week’s FOMC meeting.

2 年 2 年間 ago

Bonds

FICC

A Hard Landing Is The Only Way To Solve The UK Inflation Problem

特別レポート

The UK labor market remains far too tight to expect wage growth to slow to levels consistent with the Bank of England inflation target. A true recession with rising unemployment is needed to finally slay the UK inflation beast. 2024 rate cuts are off the table, with the central bank having to keep monetary policy tighter for longer than markets expect and the UK economy now rebounding. We recommend downgrading UK gilts to underweight in global bond portfolios, while also looking for opportunities to buy the British pound on pullbacks versus the euro, Canadian dollar and Swedish krona.

2 年 2 年間 ago

Bonds Currencies

Essentials

US GDP Disappoints But Details Show Resilience

The advanced estimates for US real GDP suggest that economic growth slowed meaningfully from 3.4% in Q4 2023 to 1.6% in Q1 2024 on an annualized basis, significantly below expectations of 2.5%. That said, the details of the report were less gloomy. While…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

Australian Inflation Comes in Hot

Tuesday’s Australian inflation release came in hotter than anticipated. Quarter-on-quarter headline inflation increased from 0.6% in Q4 2023 to 1% in the first quarter of this year, above expectations of 0.8%. Although annual inflation declined from 4.1% to…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

Rising Gasoline Prices Add Another Headwind To Consumption

Retail gasoline prices have surged 13% since the beginning of the year, boosted by resilient global demand and geopolitical tensions. A key question for investors pertains to the ability of US consumption to sustain further gasoline price increases.…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

UK Retail Sales Surprise To The Downside

UK retail sales volumes were flat in March, a decrease from the 0.1% growth registered in February and disappointing expectations of a 0.3% m/m increase. The details were mixed, with automotive fuel and non-food stores sales volumes…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

Is The Market Now Pricing No Landing?

By the end of 2023, the “soft landing” scenario became the dominant narrative in financial markets. Following the regional banking scare in March of last year, market participants slowly came around to the view that the economy was entering a goldilocks…

2 年 2 年間 ago

CoreMacro

The Margin Risk

European profits margins are elevated. Will a mild recession be enough to bring them down?

2 年 2 年間 ago

Europe

Essentials

Japanese CPI Inflation Eases More Than Expected

Japan’s national CPI inflation unexpectedly cooled in March, falling to 2.7% y/y versus consensus estimates it would remain at 2.8% y/y. Notably, measures of underlying inflation such as core CPI (ex-fresh food) and “core-core” CPI (ex-fresh food and energy)…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

UK Inflation Comes In Hotter Than Expected

UK inflation came in hotter than expected in March. Headline CPI inflation was unchanged at 0.6% m/m – above expectations of a slowdown to 0.4% m/m. Moreover, while the headline and core measures both decelerated on an annual basis, they exceeded consensus…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Inflation/Deflation

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