Inflation/Deflation
Our 2025 Outlook was just published. We revisit this year’s calls and discuss what we think is ahead for the global economy and markets for the next 12 months and beyond. The recent US election has significantly shifted our economic and market outlook. A…
After fueling the USD rally, price action from the past few weeks suggests Treasury yields might limit US equities’ upside. Following the post-COVID inflation, stocks and bond yields were negatively correlated, reflecting markets' inflation concerns.…
UK inflation was hotter than expected in October, rising to 0.6% m/m from being flat in September. Core inflation also ticked up, printing at 3.3% y/y vs. 3.2% a month prior. Services inflation remains elevated at 5.0% y/y. We do not expect…
Canadian inflation was slightly hotter than expected in October, re-accelerating to 2.0% y/y from 1.6% in September. The BoC’s favored core measures, median and trim, re-accelerated to 2.5% and 2.6% respectively, and CPI-common rebounded to 2.2%. CPI…
As talks of a market “meltup” abound, we used last Friday’s edition of our BCA Live & Unfiltered meeting to assess our asset allocation recommendations. Our House View has been underweight equities since March, a recommendation reinforced by two of our…
US CPI inflation for October printed in line with expectations and was unchanged from September, with headline at 0.2% month-over-month and core at 0.3%. Headline re-accelerated to 2.6% from 2.4% on an annual basis, and core stayed steady at 3.3%. This…
今朝のCPI発表を受けてインフレ見通しを更新し、ティップスのブレークイーブン・インフレ率には下落の余地があると結論しました。
当社のポートフォリオ配分サマリー（2024年11月）
トランプの圧勝は規制緩和と貿易関税の引き上げを確実にする民意の支持をもたらす。財政赤字の拡大や移民改革も見込まれ、共和党は下院でかろうじて僅差を確保するかもしれない。外交はより一方的になり、当初は米国資産が上回るだろう。