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The latest CPI release provided further evidence that inflation has peaked in the US (see The Numbers). Going forward, price pressures will recede across major developed economies more broadly amid the resolution of pandemic supply disruptions, subsiding…
On aggregate, US firms experienced a sharp increase in pricing power following the initial shock of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, this trend has since reversed, and companies’ pricing power is fading. The darkening economic backdrop ultimately limits firms’…
The chart above shows equity valuations ahead of the eight most recent major S&P 500 drawdowns. It suggests that there is some evidence that the magnitude of decline in equity prices is somewhat dependent on equity valuations ahead of the drawdowns. In…
特別レポート

Our recommendations for podcasts (on macro and markets, as well as non-work-related topics) to try over the holidays.

特別レポート

Following the release of the Bank Credit Analyst’s annual outlook, we unveil our key views for 2023. The investment strategy takeaway is that we want to lean into risk in the early part of the year but reduce exposure to it in the second half.

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We explore the eight major themes that will define economic and market trends for Europe next year.

Prefer government bonds over stocks, defensive sectors over cyclicals, and large caps over small caps. Favor North America over other markets. Favor emerging markets like Southeast Asia and Latin America over Greater China, Turkey, and emerging Europe. Stick with aerospace/defense stocks.

特別レポート

Prefer government bonds over stocks, defensive sectors over cyclicals, and large caps over small caps. Favor North America over other markets. Favor emerging markets like Southeast Asia and Latin America over Greater China, Turkey, and emerging Europe. Stick with aerospace/defense stocks.

In this <i>Strategy Outlook</i>, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out next year and beyond.

特別レポート

For the first time in decades, the Fed is raising rates while the US Leading Economic Indicator has fallen into contractionary territory and the global manufacturing PMI’s new orders sub-index has dropped below 50. Hence, the outlook for global stocks is currently poor. However, the underperformance of EM equities versus the US is in a late stage. We are putting EM stocks on an upgrade watch list and recommend buying EM domestic bonds opportunistically.