景気循環
In our May In Review Insight, we highlighted that last month, industrial metals generated the largest abnormal losses among the major global financial assets we track. This continues a downtrend that started at the beginning of the year and has pushed down…
Chinese producer prices sent a disappointing signal about the domestic economy on Friday. The pace of decline in producer prices accelerated from -3.6% in April to -4.6% in May – worse than expectations of a -4.3% drop. The decrease was particularly…
Investor sentiment has improved meaningfully in recent weeks. According to the latest AAII survey, the share of respondents with a bullish outlook jumped from 29.1% to 44.5%. It crossed above the historical average of 37.5% for the first time since February…
On June 7th, the VIX closed just below 14, its lowest level since the onset of the pandemic. The index has been on an unprecedented downtrend since March. In fact, the most recent 60-day change in the VIX is in the bottom 3% of all 60-day moves. Lower…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the leading indicators of inflation continue to point down, suggesting that the Fed may be able to finally go on hold after hiking one last time in July. Earlier this year, the team predicted…
Global semiconductor demand will continue contracting, even though the pace of decline will moderate in 2023H2. While demand has increased briskly for Artificial Intelligence-type semiconductors, this will not be enough to lift aggregate global chip sales out of contraction. While momentum could push Emerging Asian semiconductor stocks higher in the short term, their share prices are vulnerable to the downside due to shrinking demand.
The latest increase in US weekly jobless claims came in above consensus estimates. Initial jobless claims jumped to 261 thousand in the week ended June 3 – above expectations of a 235 thousand increase. This marks the highest level since October 2021. Rising…
The final Q1 GDP release shows the Euro Area economy contracted by 0.1% q/q last quarter, a downwards revision from estimates of a 0.1% expansion. To the extent that this follows a 0.1% q/q decline in Q4 2022, the revised numbers indicate that the Euro Area…
Near the half-year mark, it is safe to say 2023 has been different than 2022 for equity investors. After being brought down in bear market territory by Europe’s energy crisis and sudden global shift to hawkish monetary policy in 2022, the S&P 500 was…
Chinese trade data delivered a disappointing signal about the global manufacturing cycle. After a brief rebound in March and April, exports dropped by 7.5% y/y in USD terms last month – below consensus estimates of a 1.8% y/y decline. The decrease was…