新興市場
Taiwanese export orders surprised positively when a deceleration was expected, printing at 4.9% y/y, up from 4.6% in September. The increase was spread across most categories, with exports of electronic products accelerating to 11.2%. Japanese exports also…
With cross-asset price action mainly revolving around the Trump trade since the election, Tuesday’s headlines surrounding Russia and Ukraine brought investors’ attention back abroad. As predicted by our Geopolitical strategists, Russia responded to the Biden…
East Asian exports reveal the global economy keeps decelerating. Singaporean non-oil domestic exports (NODX) missed expectations and decelerated in October, falling 7.4% m/m (-4.6% y/y). Electronics exports grew 2.6% y/y, slowing down from 4.0% in September.…
Chinese activity indicators showed resilience in October, with retail sales jumping from 3.2% to 4.8% y/y. Industrial production growth was roughly unchanged at 5.3% y/y. New and used home prices keep falling, albeit at a slower pace. We would fade this…
The flipside of the recent US dollar rally has been weakness across both DM and EM FX. The USD rally has legs and will have cross-asset reverberations. EM equities will be affected. A key determinant of EM returns is the currency, as investors cannot benefit…
Our China Investment Strategy team assessed the country’s outlook in a context of underwhelming stimulus and rising trade tensions. Trump’s re-election raises the likelihood of tariff hikes on Chinese exports. China’s recent stimulus announcements…
Trump's presidential re-election makes US tariff rate hikes on Chinese exports an imminent threat. Beijing has made extensive efforts to derisk the domestic economy and diversify trade away from the US. However, China is no better positioned today than it was in 2018 to withstand the impact of a renewed trade war.
11月はS&Pが6,000に到達しました！トランプ大統領は「レッド・スウィープ」を制し（私たちが一年を通じて予想していた通り）、米国で政権交代をもたらしました。当面はモメンタムを追う姿勢で臨みます。しかし、市場にとって最大のリスクは債券利回りであり、投資家がトランプ大統領の政策とそれが財政赤字に及ぼす影響を織り込み始めると、利回りは上昇するはずです。
China’s October data for inflation and money disappointed. Headline CPI decelerated to 0.3% year-over-year from 0.4% in September, and PPI deflation worsened at -2.9% vs. -2.8% a month prior. While broad measures such as M2 accelerated, new loan growth has…