地政学的地域
トランプの圧勝は規制緩和と貿易関税の引き上げを確実にする民意の支持をもたらす。財政赤字の拡大や移民改革も見込まれ、共和党は下院でかろうじて僅差を確保するかもしれない。外交はより一方的になり、当初は米国資産が上回るだろう。
いよいよ選挙当日が到来しました。いいえ、このメールに決定的な「銀の弾丸」とも言える予測は含まれていません。これは単に、誰が勝っても選挙が市場にどのような影響を与えるかについての当社の長期予測に過ぎません。
EM credit markets have recently defied the selloffs in EM equities, currencies, local currency bonds, and commodities. According to our Emerging Markets Strategy colleagues, such a decoupling is unusual. A potential Trump re-election could weigh heavily on EM…
In a trendless yet volatile year for oil, Israel’s retaliatory attack on Iran this weekend is a reminder the outlook is fraught with geopolitical risks. Risks are usually expressed as a geopolitical price premium, but this weekend’s events point to a…
Developed markets Flash PMIs estimates for October were mixed, with resilient US numbers and weakness elsewhere. The eurozone composite met expectations but remains below the 50-level expansion threshold. Germany outperformed expectations as foreshadowed by…
The war in Ukraine has ended in late 2022… for markets at least. This is the conclusion from our GeoMacro team’s latest report, which aims to dispel five crucial myths surrounding the conflict. The myths are the following: The Ukraine-Russia War Will Become A…
In this Special Report, Marko Papic, Chief Strategist of BCA Research’s GeoMacro Strategy, and Mathieu Savary, Chief Strategist of BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy, together argue that the conflict in Ukraine is already frozen, already losing support in the West, and is likely to taper off over the course of 2025. However, there is no easy alpha left to harvest from that conclusion, the market has already moved on. Some long-term investment opportunities remain in broad European assets.
We maintain 37% odds of a major recessionary oil shock, 51% odds of minor shocks, and 12% odds of no shocks.