固定収入

Where is the most likely mispricing of interest rates today? Plus our latest thoughts on the U.K.'s June 23 referendum on EU membership, and its market implications.

This month's Special Report reviews the main factors driving the "lower for longer" bond yield view. A key finding is that the demographically-driven portion of the expansion in world capital spending has come to a virtual standstill, representing a major hit to underlying demand growth.

This month's Special Report reviews the main factors driving the "lower for longer" bond yield view. A key finding is that the demographically-driven portion of the expansion in world capital spending has come to a virtual standstill, representing a major hit to underlying demand growth.

A near-term rally in risk assets now appears very likely. But we expect it to be cut short when the Fed eventually reacts to easier financial conditions by returning to a more hawkish policy stance. Investors should maintain a defensive portfolio allocation on a 6-12 month horizon, and remain overweight TIPS versus nominal Treasuries.

The deeply negative momentum in oil prices is fading, setting up the possibility of a counter-trend rebound in global inflation expectations and perhaps even the beaten-up U.S. High-Yield bond market.

The agreement to freeze oil production should reduce tail risks, even if it does not improve overall corporate sector health and profits.

The recovery in global risk assets and currencies is a temporary oversold bounce. It is not supported by signs that global growth is on the mend. Consequently, we are not willing to embrace more risk in our currency strategy just yet.

Markets see long-term global growth prospects as having deteriorated materially, with policymakers unwilling or unable to do much about it. Meanwhile, recent economic data - U.S. notably - hasn't been that bad. A divergence between what matters to Wall Street versus Main Street explains the disconnect. Accelerating wage growth, lower commodity prices, and cheaper rates are positives for households - but not for many Wall Street sectors. Stay neutral global equities. T-bonds are a "hold" for now. The dollar's selloff is overdone.

Indonesia has been fighting the Impossible Trinity, a battle that cannot be won. The central bank will continue printing rupiahs and the currency will depreciate further. Eventually rupiah depreciation will push up interbank rates, and Indonesia's credit cycle and economic growth will stumble. Continue shorting the rupiah, underweighting Indonesian stocks and sovereign credit, and shorting long-term (5-year) local government bonds.