固定収入

Most financial assets are trading within the confines of the feedback loop between markets and Fed policy. Investors should avoid expensive assets such as spread product, and hold positions with attractive long-term value such as U.S. TIPS over nominal Treasuries and U.S. Treasuries over German bunds.

The euro area's nominal GDP and wage bill are growing at 3%, suggesting that fears of deflation are overdone. But a higher wage bill has implications for profits growth.

EM/China growth improvements and the associated rally will falter on their own without tightening by policymakers. The short duration of these mini-cycles and a lack of observable catalysts make it impossible to precisely time selling out of EM positions. This makes us reluctant to chase the rally. Regardless how the impeachment process proceeds, Brazil is heading into a fiscal/public debt crisis.

The balance of risks favors accelerating wages and stable core inflation during the next few months. This will result in a move higher in rate hike expectations, benefitting Treasury curve flatteners.

Japanese policymakers are in the process of shifting away from negative rates and fiscal consolidation, leaving JGB yields exposed to any move to weaken the yen that could raise depressed inflation expectations.

This week <i>Global Alpha Sector Strategy</i> in conjunction with <i>Emerging Markets Strategy</i> is sending out a <i>Special Report</i> on EM deep cyclical sectors, discussing debt and cash flow dynamics, identifying how far advanced the capital expenditure down cycle is, and determining if recent EM deep cyclical strength should be bought or faded.

Chinese PPI deflation will likely continue to ease going forward. There are non-trivial odds that the PPI deflation may turn positive. Our models predict a sharp upturn in China's profit cycle. Meanwhile, Anti-corruption investigation cases have dropped substantially since the beginning of the year, a sign that the Communist Party may be reorienting priorities to boost economic growth.

Treasuries appear overbought in the near-term, especially given evidence of a rebound in global manufacturing, but we would need to see evidence of a sustained re-synchronization of global growth before advocating a shift to below benchmark duration on a 6-12 month horizon.