固定収入

Markets will remain stuck in a trading range, driven by two policy feedback loops: the Fed's and China's.

Both hawks and doves at the Federal Reserve, including Chair Yellen, have stepped up efforts to condition financial markets for a rate hike as early as June.

For the month of May, the model underperformed both global equities and the S&P 500. For the month of June, the model is further paring back its risk exposure.

The latest conclusions from the sector-based (right) way to pick stock markets. Plus some important conclusions for credit markets.

This month's <i>Special Report</i> reviews the literature on equity market timing, and identifies the key indicators that historically have had the best track record. We then aggregate the indicators into an overall scorecard that should prove to be valuable for investors in these volatile times.

Risks to global growth remain to the downside. Selling pressure in cyclical markets and assets will escalate. EM currencies will make new lows versus the U.S. dollar, the euro and yen. Take profits on our long JPY/short KRW and long JPY/short SGD trades. Short KRW versus an equal-weighted basket of the U.S. dollar, yen and euro. Continue underweighting Peruvian equities.

A June rate hike is a real possibility, but the Fed still needs evidence that growth is rebounding toward 2% in order to follow through. Whether the next rate hike occurs in June or later this year, a persistent hawkish shift from the Fed will send Treasury yields higher during the next few months.

This week, we present five of the more interesting yield curve trades in the Developed Markets for the latter half of 2016.

Tougher Fed talk warns that the Goldilocks combination of higher stock and bond prices in place since February is not sustainable.