固定収入
As expected, the Bank of Canada raised interest rates for the second consecutive month after restarting its tightening campaign last month. At 5.0%, the policy rate now stands 4.75 percentage points above where it was at the start of the tightening cycle last…
An outlook for inflation and Fed policy following this morning’s CPI report.
China’s credit expansion surprised to the upside in June. Aggregate social financing totaled CNY 4.22 trillion – above expectations of CNY 3.10 trillion and exceeding CNY 1.56 trillion in the prior month. Similarly, the CNY 3.05 trillion worth of new…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service’s base case outlook is that inflation will be sufficiently weak for the Fed to go on an extended pause after one more 25 basis point rate hike this month. This will cause both Treasury yields and slopes to trend…
Positive economic surprises have delayed the onset of recession in the United States. But tighter monetary and fiscal policy, slowing global growth, and a looming rebound in policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk suggest that investors should buy insurance while it is cheap.
A perspective on the recent increase in US bond yields and this morning’s employment report.
According to our Counterpoint strategy service, latest nowcasts indicate that world growth has likely slowed to sub-2 percent, thereby passing the threshold of a typical world recession as experienced in the early 1970s, early 1980s, early 1990s and early…
On one hand, China will be exporting deflation to the rest of the world. On the other hand, core inflation is sticky in the US, making the Fed err on the hawkish side. Altogether, these crosscurrents are creating a toxic mix for risk asset prices.
Eurozone producer prices fell by more than anticipated in May. The -1.5% y/y decrease – which marked the first annual drop since December 2020 – was more pronounced than expectations of a -1.3% y/y decline and followed a downwardly revised 0.9% y/y increase…