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Despite a couple of rate cuts in H2 2024, borrowing costs will remain elevated in real terms amid lower inflation in the US and Europe. This and tightening fiscal policy will hinder domestic demand in advanced economies. Domestic demand in China and EM ex-China will remain very tepid, with risks skewed to the downside.

2 年 2 年間 ago

Emerging Markets China

FICCCoreMacro

What Is Sweden Telling Us About The Global Cycle?

特別レポート

In this joint Foreign Exchange Strategy and Global Investment Strategy Special Report, we assess economic activity in Sweden, a highly cyclical and trade-oriented economy, and its implications for the global growth outlook.

2 年 2 年間 ago

Currencies Global

Essentials

BoE Pivot Requires Further Slowdown In UK Inflation

The UK CPI report showed inflation eased by more than anticipated in February. Headline CPI inflation dropped from 4.0% y/y to 3.4% y/y – below consensus estimates of 3.5% y/y and the weakest increase since September 2021. Similarly, the slowdown in core…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

Relative Economic Surprise Indices Support EUR/USD

Citigroup’s economic surprise index for the Euro Area has been on a steady ascent since mid-2023. Its continued increase after breaking into positive territory at the start of February indicates that the region’s economic data are generating positive…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

Eurozone Cross Currents Point To An ECB Rate Cut In June

Various indicators of Eurozone wage growth have cooled off in recent months. Notably, the labor costs index eased sharply from a downwardly revised 5.2% y/y to 3.4% y/y in 2023Q4  – the slowest pace of increase since Q3 2022. Alternative measures such as…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

Disappointing Singapore NODX Hides Positive Dynamics

Singapore non-oil exports (NODX) largely disappointed in February, contracting by 4.8% m/m following a 2.3% m/m expansion in January, and falling below expectations of a milder 0.5% m/m decline. In a similar vein, the 0.1% y/y decline in February fell below…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

Sentix Signals Improved Eurozone Growth Prospects

The Eurozone Sentix Economic index improved from -12.9 to -10.5 in March, marking a fifth month of improved sentiment amongst investors and economic agents. Notably, the Expectation subindex rose to a 25-month high of -2.3 from -5.5 in February. The Current…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

Will The Pound Continue Outperforming?

The British pound is the best performing G10 currency so far this year, gaining 0.7% vis-à-vis the US dollar. The outperformance of sterling over the past month coincides with an increase in Citigroup’s UK economic surprise index, both on an absolute basis as…

2 年 2 年間 ago

FICC

The Golden Rule Of Investing In UK Linkers

特別レポート

In this Special Report, we introduce our UK Linkers Golden Rule – a framework to profitably trade and invest in UK inflation-linked bonds versus nominal UK gilts. The Rule is currently signaling that nominal Gilts should outperform UK linkers over the next year as UK inflation slows.

2 年 2 年間 ago

Bonds

Essentials

ECB: On Track For A June Rate Cut

According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, last week’s ECB meeting confirmed their long-held view that the most likely date for the first ECB rate cut would be June. The ECB continues to acknowledge that the European economy is soft…

2 年 2 年間 ago

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