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ユーロ圏

The latest Eurozone data releases show the impact of the ECB’s aggressive monetary tightening cycle. The contraction in M1 money supply – which includes currency in circulation and overnight deposits – deepened to -5.2% y/y in April while the broader M3…
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Now that the French pension reforms have been passed, President Macron’s focus will be on the international stage. Where are the risks and opportunities for French assets created by this pivot?

President Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party emerged as the winner of the Turkish general election which was concluded yesterday. This victory means that their expansive policies of the past decade will continue, and Turkish assets will suffer. Across the Aegean, the Greeks voted to reelect the New Democrats under the leadership of Prime Minister Mitsotakis. Their fiscal prudence and structural reforms will be continued as voters had rewarded them with another term in office. Go long Greek versus Turkish equities.

In this Month-In-Review report, we go over the latest G10 data releases and rank currencies’ fundamental standing based on our updated macroeconomic model.

Over the past couple years, the price of natural gas has closely tracked the relative performance of European assets. Specifically, the underperformance of Euro Area stocks vis-à-vis US equities and the weakening EUR/USD coincided with the rally in natgas…
In recent insights we have noted a recent deterioration in European sentiment indicators such as the ZEW and Sentix. Similarly, measures of manufacturing activity are deteriorating. The flash estimate of the HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell deeper in…
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Consumer discretionary shares have led European markets higher this year. While long-term drivers remain positive, can the same be said for the remainder of 2023?

特別レポート

Financial commentators, politicians and policymakers have increasingly been blaming stubbornly high inflation on companies pursuing aggressive pricing strategies to boost earnings and margins. In this Special Report, we investigate the concept of “greedflation” – companies persistently raising prices faster than costs are increasing to pad profit margins - and see if the associated conclusions about corporate pricing power and inflation are borne out by the data in the US, euro area and UK.

The lift to European investor sentiment from the ebbing energy crisis is now in the rear-view mirror. The German ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment fell back below 0 in May to -10.7 from 4.1. The negative reading indicates that the share of pessimists…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, a large set of variables points to some additional correction in European stocks over the coming months. The collapse in the Euro Area M1 is consistent with a significant decline in Eurozone…