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In this <i>Special Report</i>, we revisit our list of signpost economic indicators introduced two years ago to identify if the U.S. and Euro Area were falling into a "Secular Stagnation".
There is a risk that global bond yields move higher in the near term, although we prefer to position for that move <i>via</i> cross-market spread, yield curve and inflation trades.
Markets will remain stuck in a trading range, driven by two policy feedback loops: the Fed's and China's.
The latest conclusions from the sector-based (right) way to pick stock markets. Plus some important conclusions for credit markets.
This month's <i>Special Report</i> reviews the literature on equity market timing, and identifies the key indicators that historically have had the best track record. We then aggregate the indicators into an overall scorecard that should prove to be valuable for investors in these volatile times.
This month's <i>Special Report</i> reviews the literature on equity market timing, and identifies the key indicators that historically have had the best track record. We then aggregate the indicators into an overall scorecard that should prove to be valuable for investors in these volatile times.
As the sole shock absorber left in the global economy, FX markets will grow more volatile. The currency market's reaction to the recent Fed minutes exemplifies this phenomenon. Despite its sores and blisters, the U.S. economy wins the global beauty contest. Caught between those forces, the USD will continue to weaken over the next quarter or two before resuming its broader bull market.
We focus on 3 stress-points in the economy and markets which segue to several high conviction investment recommendations.
Within an overweight allocation to Euro Area corporates versus U.S. corporates, favor single-B rated Euro Area High-Yield and Euro Area Investment Grade sectors that offer higher duration-adjusted spreads.