ポリシー
Our best calls of the year were long defensives over cyclicals, short Russia and emerging Europe, long aerospace/defense, short Greater China, and long Latin America. Our worst call of the year was long cyber security stocks.
Commodity currencies have been rather resilient, despite the broad rise in the dollar this year. In our view, we are about to experience a big rotation in commodity currency market performance at the crosses, from NZD, to CAD and finally to AUD.
Is China completely abandoning its dynamic zero-COVID policy? When will the economy start recovering? What are the implications for Chinese stocks and China-related assets?
Have authorities provided enough financing to property developers? Will developers be able to repay these loans and, if not, who would bear the cost of potential defaults?
What should be the strategy for Chinese onshore rates and the RMB?
We are revising our 4Q22 Brent forecast to $90/bbl, expecting December front-line Brent to average $85/bbl. On the back of this early weakness, we are lowering our 2023 forecast slightly to $115/bbl, with an upside bias, anticipating a successful – if chaotic – re-opening in China beginning in 1Q23. Our expectations for copper trading above $4.00/lb in 1Q23 and above $4.50/lb in 2H23 stand.
Web 3.0 plays will boom in the coming decade. Play this through a diversified exposure to today’s main blockchain tokens. But the Web 2.0 oligopolies, like Amazon and Meta, are in big trouble.
The S&P 500 is down by 17% year to date, while our portfolio is up 15%. US political analysis is essential for investors but it is best done by geopolitical method rather than Washington punditry.
The Chinese government will repress social unrest, then relax Covid-19 social restrictions to try to stabilize the economy. Russia will be aggressive in the short term but will pursue a ceasefire before March 2024. European and Italian risk will stay high on energy constraints.
Today, we are sending you the BCA annual outlook for 2023. The report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, who are long-time BCA clients with whom we discuss the economic and financial market outlook for the next twelve months toward the end of each year.
Excess job vacancies in the US and UK reflect a labour market that cannot efficiently match unemployed workers with vacant jobs. This is because excess job vacancies reflect the shortage of labour supply in the 50 plus age cohort, whose skills are difficult to replace. In economic jargon, the post-pandemic ‘Beveridge curve’ has shifted outwards. Absent an unlikely shift in the Beveridge curve to its pre-pandemic version, killing US wage inflation will mean killing jobs. And killing jobs will mean killing profits. We go through the investment implications.