ポリシー

Will Softening Inflation Compel The RBA To Stand Pat?

Australia’s June monthly CPI release shows inflationary pressures continue to moderate. Headline CPI inflation receded to 5.4% y/y -- in line with expectations – following a downwardly revised 5.5% y/y in May. To the extent that the monthly release includes…

3 年 3 年間 ago

Essentials

July FOMC: Hot Growth, Cold Prices

The July FOMC meeting proceeded pretty much as expected. The Fed hiked by 25 basis points, bringing the target range for the funds rate up to 5.25%-5.50%. The forward rate guidance included in the post-meeting statement was also unchanged from June. It…

3 年 3 年間 ago

FICC

July FOMC Meeting Recap

A brief recap of the July FOMC meeting and its investment implications.

3 年 3 年間 ago

Bonds

Essentials

Value Has Returned To Short-Maturity TIPS

According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, inflation will fall during the next 12 months, but not by as much as markets expect. Investors should take advantage of this valuation opportunity by entering 2-year/10-year TIPS breakeven slope…

3 年 3 年間 ago

Essentials

German Business Sentiment Deteriorates

Tuesday’s German IFO survey corroborates the downbeat message from Monday’s flash PMI estimate highlighting weak economic conditions. The headline Business Climate Index dropped 1.3 points to 87.3 in July – its weakest level since November, and below…

3 年 3 年間 ago

CoreMacro

China’s Stimulus: Necessary But Not Sufficient

Stay cautious on Chinese stocks. Equity investors should use any rebound in onshore stock prices to downgrade A-shares from overweight to neutral within global and EM equity portfolios. Remain underweight Chinese investable/offshore stocks. Onshore bond yields will drop to all-time lows. Continue receiving 10-year swap rates. The currency will continue depreciating versus the US dollar in the coming months.

3 年 3 年間 ago

Emerging Markets China

Essentials

Geopolitics, Indian Export Ban Raise Grain Supply Risks

Wheat and corn prices have surged by 16% and 11%, respectively since Russia refused to renew the Black Sea Grain Initiative after it expired on July 17. The deal, which was negotiated with Turkey and the UN, allowed shipments of Ukrainian grain from Odessa. …

3 年 3 年間 ago

Essentials

No Irrigation-Style Stimulus From Beijing

China’s Politburo meeting delivered a disappointing signal about Beijing’s willingness to deliver meaningful stimulus. Although policymakers pledged support for domestic demand, consumer sentiment, and risk prevention, they underscored that the measures will…

3 年 3 年間 ago

CoreMacro

Takeaways From The Spanish Snap Election: Heading Into A Deadlock

The snap election which took place on Sunday resulted in a political deadlock in Spain. No single party has won enough seats to form a government. More importantly, both the left-wing bloc and the right-bloc fell short of the 176-seat majority needed in the 350-seat lower house. Negotiations are taking place as we publish, but neither side can see a clear and straightforward path to form a working government. Spain is heading into a political deadlock.

3 年 3 年間 ago

Europe

FICC

Weighing The Tradeoffs: Easing Financial Conditions Versus Falling Inflation

This week we preview the July FOMC meeting, provide an update on the Fed’s balance sheet and recommend a new TIPS trade.

3 年 3 年間 ago

Bonds

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