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According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, it is too early to conclude that the Fed can stop raising rates. Consumption and real income growth are highly correlated. If inflation continues to fall, real wages will rise further. If that…
The ECB’s tone has changed decisively. Intransigent forward guidance is gone; data dependency is in. What does this transition mean for the path of European interest rates and the euro?
US economic data released on Friday continued the string of good news about the US economy. On the inflation front, core PCE inflation – the Fed’s preferred gauge of underlying price pressures – softened to 0.165% m/m in June. On an annualized basis, this…
On Friday, the Bank of Japan announced an important tweak to its yield curve control (YCC) program. Although it maintained the 0.5% cap on 10-year bond yields, it indicated that it will manage the program with “greater flexibility” such that the 0.5% level is…
The DXY will continue to have near-term upside, as economic growth holds up in the US, while it deteriorates in other parts of the world. Remain constructive on the DXY at current levels, but pivot to a short position on evidence US growth is boosting the rest of the world.
A look at recent US data on economic growth and inflation, with an update on the implications for monetary policy and bond yields.
As expected, the ECB delivered a 25 basis point rate increase on Thursday, raising the policy rate to its 2001 record high of 3.75% and marking its ninth consecutive rate increase. The most important takeaway from the meeting is the absence of forward…
Looking at the complete picture of GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment, it is understandable to assume the Fed is doing much better than it expected. GDP growth is tracking to exceed the Fed's forecast, while the outlook for both inflation and…
On the surface, US economic data delivered strong upside surprises on Thursday. The advance estimate of GDP growth shows economic activity accelerated from 2.0% to 2.4% in Q2 – surprising expectations of a slowdown to 1.8%. Similarly, durable goods orders…
BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service expects steady demand for EVs will be able to absorb increasing lithium supplies in the short-to-medium term. The team is getting long the LIT ETF at tonight’s close. Demand for lithium-ion batteries…