ポリシー

The ‘Sahm Rule’ Recession Trigger Is Good, But The ‘Joshi Rule’ Is Better

We unveil the ‘Joshi rule’ real-time recession indicator as a much better version of the Federal Reserve’s own ‘Sahm rule’. And we identify what would trigger these recession indicators in this week’s and future US jobs reports. Plus: airlines, soybeans, and tin are all good rebound candidates based on their collapsed short-term complexities.

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

The RBA: A Wait-And-See Strategy

The Australian dollar was among the worst performing major currencies on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia held the cash rate at 4.1% for the fourth consecutive month. In her post meeting statement, newly appointed Governor Michele Bullock noted…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

The Signal From The US Inflation Surprise Index

The Citi US Inflation Surprise Index has risen over the past two months after having bottomed at a three-year low in July. The good news is that the level of the index remains negative after having first fallen below zero in April – meaning inflation data is…

2 年 2 年間 ago

FICC

How Far From The Peak?

We present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for October 2023.

2 年 2 年間 ago

Bonds

Essentials

September Survey Results: High For Longer

In the monthly Daily Insights Survey we conducted over the past week, we asked about our readers’ outlook for oil prices, Fed policy, and the global economy. On the outlook for crude oil, a larger share of respondents expect the price of oil to end the…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

Times Of Extreme Tightening Support Private Credit

Within alternatives, BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service favors Private Credit since yields are in double-digits and lenders are in a strong negotiating position.  Private Credit (Overweight): Considering the current trend of extremely…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Equities

The "Higher For Longer" Troika: Rates, Dollar And Energy

Downside risks to equities are building. Rates, the dollar, and energy prices will remain elevated into yearend. This trifecta makes a soft landing less likely than before and hurts corporate profits and multiples. However, high cash balances may offer downside protection against a sharp correction.

2 年 2 年間 ago

US Equities

CoreMacro

EIS Special Series: PIGS Have Wings

特別レポート

Introducing our Special Series to assess where Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain stand today. Stay tuned for more.

2 年 2 年間 ago

Europe

Essentials

US Core PCE Inflation Continues To Moderate

The US Personal Income and Outlays report for August sent a positive signal about the disinflationary trend. The core PCE deflator – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – slowed to a 33-month low of 0.1% m/m, below expectations that it would remain at 0.2%…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

On Disinflation In Japan

The BoJ remains an outlier among global DM central banks. While many of its peers are now debating whether to end their rate tightening cycles, the Japanese central bank has not even started raising interest rates yet. Nevertheless, Tokyo’s CPI report showed…

2 年 2 年間 ago

ポリシー

関連トピック