サハラ以南のアフリカ

South Africa’s ambitious reform agenda will take time to bear fruit. Meanwhile, the country faces a stagflationary squeeze as inflation rises while growth slows. South African stocks, bonds, and currency are all vulnerable.

米ドル建ての新興市場債券は、過去1年間で米国企業債を上回るパフォーマンスを示しています。この上昇がまだ終わっていないと考えています。

このチャートブックでは、先進国（DM）および新興国（EM）の各国の国際収支を検討します。米国の状況は良くありませんが、他のいくつかの国も同様です。

The South African government seems to believe that some fiscal retrenchment can stabilize the public debt-to-GDP ratio. But that’s a misconception. The country will need draconian spending cuts to achieve this.

The new national unity government in South Africa creates a geopolitical opportunity that investors should not bet against in the short term. A broad-based rally is likely to unfold relative to other emerging markets. However, structural problems and distrust within the new coalition hold out significant risks over the long run.

In this report, we gauge the outlook for the dollar given client visits in Africa.