アメリカ合衆国
Our Valentine’s Day report is about two love stories: the infatuation with US tech and China’s infatuation with housing. We describe how these love stories will end, and why Europe could be the winner.
We created a sector selection scorecard based on performance of sectors under various macroeconomic regimes while taking into consideration revisions to expected earnings growth and valuations in a historical context. Our total sector selection scorecard suggests overweighting defensives such as Utilities, and Consumer Staples, and underweighting cyclicals such as Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Financials. Considering this analysis, we have adjusted our sector positioning accordingly.
China will continue to suffer from a “triple crisis”. Though there could be a tactical bounce, cyclically we still recommend underweighting Chinese equities.