Semiconductores
La relativa resiliencia de las acciones relacionadas con la tecnología frente a tasas más altas, en contraste con la mayor sensibilidad a los rendimientos que exhibe la acción media, refleja la dinámica en forma de K de la economía real. Muchos inversores han…
Nuestros clientes se muestran más constructivos con los bancos de LatAm y el ciclo de semiconductores de Corea y Taiwán. En la encuesta de la semana pasada preguntamos dónde ven los inversores la mayor alza entre tres temas de mercados emergentes. Los…
La reciente sacudida del mercado de renta variable de Corea es una señal de advertencia para los activos de riesgo globales. Estamos tomando ganancias en la operación larga en acciones semiconductoras asiáticas / corta en hyperscalers estadounidenses y rebajando a Corea de sobreponderada a neutral en una cartera de renta variable de mercados emergentes.
Our Counterpoint Strategy team believes the equity bull market’s biggest risk is the reversal of the divergence between Japanese and US real yields. Japan’s real policy interest rate differential versus the US stands at an unprecedented and unsustainable…
The recent slump in globally- and tech-sensitive East Asian trade shows no respite, with advanced October Korean exports and September Taiwanese export orders data disappointing. Korean exports for the first 20 days of October dropped 2.9% year-over-year…
Export dynamics from small open economies are a good bellwether for global growth conditions. Taiwan export orders accelerated from 4.8% y/y to a faster-than-anticipated 9.1% in August. The faster pace of growth was also broad-based among the country’s main…
Singapore is a small open economy sensitive to global trade dynamics. Its non-oil exports (NODX) are thus a good bellwether for global growth conditions. Overall exports, which are highly volatile on a month-on-month basis, decelerated at a…
Trade data from small open economies act as a bellwether for global growth developments. In August, Korean exports expanded by 11.4% y/y in USD and 5.7% y/y in KRW terms, marking their eleventh and eighth consecutive month of expansion, respectively. August…
Global semiconductor stocks have returned 50% YTD in USD terms, and a whopping 200% since their September 2022 lows. However, they may have peaked back in July. Our Emerging Market strategists highlight a significant bifurcation between the revenues of…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy Service, China has been accumulating high-value memory semiconductors in anticipation of further US restrictions. Since October 2022, the US has been tightening rules that would limit China’s progress in…