Sectores

Los inversores han renunciado a los activos europeos, que ahora cotizan con descuentos excepcionales respecto a los activos estadounidenses. Sin embargo, una política fiscal estadounidense más restrictiva, el fin de la austeridad y del desapalancamiento en Europa, el tsunami de GNL a punto de golpear las costas europeas y el capex global impulsado por la Tríada Geopolítica Imposible significan que el momento de gloria de Europa pronto volverá.

Investors have given up on European assets, which now suffer exceptional discounts to US ones. However, tighter US fiscal policy, the end of Europe’s austerity and deleveraging, the LNG Tsunami about to hit European shores, and the global capex fueled by the Impossible Geopolitical Trinity mean that Europe’s time to shine will soon come back.

The post-COVID recovery has been one of excesses. Government deficits have ballooned, tight labor markets have led to a windfall of consumer spending, and equity valuations have soared on the back of lofty growth expectations. But these excesses will no longer be sustainable in 2025. Our theme for next year is Thin Is Back In. Government budgets, economic growth, and equity valuations will be leaner than investors expect. We discuss this the reasoning behind this macro view and the asset allocation implications that follow from it.