Economía
El marco de la oferta acodada ayuda a explicar por qué la inflación de Estados Unidos aumentó tan repentinamente poco después de que comenzara la pandemia y por qué es probable que la economía experimente una desinflación benigna en los próximos seis meses.
The messages from the deteriorating fundamental backdrop (tight monetary policy, slowing global growth) and improved credit valuation (elevated 12-month breakeven spreads) are giving conflicting signals on corporate bond strategy. We are putting more weight on the fundamentals and are staying with an overall underweight stance on global investment grade corporates, with a slight bias towards Europe given more attractive spread valuations. At the same time, we see selective opportunities in sectors where risk-adjusted spreads are wide as signaled by our individual country sector valuation models, like US Energy and euro area Financials.
The conditions for a sustainable rally in Chinese stocks have not been met. In this report we discuss the four signposts which we will closely monitor to gauge when it will be warranted to upgrade our stance on Chinese equities both in absolute terms and relative to the global stock benchmark.